State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 5 segments
During 1990-1994, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to -0.1.
During 1994-1998, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -0.9.
During 1998-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -0.1.
During 2001-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.5.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to -1.8.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 214.9. The estimated rate was 215.3.
In 1991, the observed rate was 215.1. The estimated rate was 214.5.
In 1992, the observed rate was 213.5. The estimated rate was 213.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 213.4. The estimated rate was 213.0.
In 1994, the observed rate was 211.7. The estimated rate was 212.3.
In 1995, the observed rate was 209.9. The estimated rate was 209.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 207.0. The estimated rate was 206.8.
In 1997, the observed rate was 203.6. The estimated rate was 204.1.
In 1998, the observed rate was 200.8. The estimated rate was 201.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 200.7. The estimated rate was 199.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 198.8. The estimated rate was 198.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 196.3. The estimated rate was 196.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 194.4. The estimated rate was 193.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 190.9. The estimated rate was 190.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 186.8. The estimated rate was 187.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 185.2. The estimated rate was 185.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 182.0. The estimated rate was 182.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 179.3. The estimated rate was 179.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 176.3. The estimated rate was 176.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 173.4. The estimated rate was 174.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 171.8. The estimated rate was 171.4.
In 2011, the observed rate was 168.8. The estimated rate was 168.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 166.4. The estimated rate was 166.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 163.3. The estimated rate was 163.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 161.5. The estimated rate was 161.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 159.0. The estimated rate was 158.8.
In 2016, the observed rate was 156.1. The estimated rate was 155.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 152.7. The estimated rate was 152.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 149.2. The estimated rate was 149.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 146.0. The estimated rate was 146.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 143.8. The estimated rate was 143.5.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/19/2024 4:18 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.