State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -0.2.
During 2015-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.4 to 1.6.
During 2018-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -5.0 to -2.1.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 433.0. The estimated rate was 432.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 429.2. The estimated rate was 430.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 424.2. The estimated rate was 428.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 421.6. The estimated rate was 425.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 425.8. The estimated rate was 423.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 428.2. The estimated rate was 421.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 418.4. The estimated rate was 418.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 424.9. The estimated rate was 416.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 411.3. The estimated rate was 414.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 414.1. The estimated rate was 412.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 401.2. The estimated rate was 409.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 402.6. The estimated rate was 407.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 409.7. The estimated rate was 405.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 407.2. The estimated rate was 403.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 404.3. The estimated rate was 406.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 405.5. The estimated rate was 409.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 410.5. The estimated rate was 413.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 407.1. The estimated rate was 398.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 370.6. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 367.8. The estimated rate was 370.6.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/03/2025 12:55 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.