State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2014, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.2.
During 2014-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.7 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 653.2. The estimated rate was 666.8.
In 1991, the observed rate was 658.6. The estimated rate was 657.9.
In 1992, the observed rate was 658.9. The estimated rate was 649.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 642.8. The estimated rate was 640.5.
In 1994, the observed rate was 639.1. The estimated rate was 632.0.
In 1995, the observed rate was 617.3. The estimated rate was 623.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 613.9. The estimated rate was 615.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 599.1. The estimated rate was 607.0.
In 1998, the observed rate was 576.9. The estimated rate was 599.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 598.4. The estimated rate was 591.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 587.4. The estimated rate was 583.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 576.4. The estimated rate was 575.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 574.6. The estimated rate was 567.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 577.4. The estimated rate was 560.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 557.0. The estimated rate was 552.7.
In 2005, the observed rate was 550.3. The estimated rate was 545.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 536.8. The estimated rate was 538.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 532.8. The estimated rate was 530.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 513.5. The estimated rate was 523.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 508.2. The estimated rate was 516.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 514.4. The estimated rate was 510.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 498.5. The estimated rate was 503.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 497.7. The estimated rate was 496.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 491.9. The estimated rate was 489.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 480.1. The estimated rate was 483.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 476.4. The estimated rate was 472.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 463.9. The estimated rate was 462.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 450.6. The estimated rate was 452.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 438.9. The estimated rate was 443.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 435.2. The estimated rate was 433.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 425.4. The estimated rate was 424.1.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/19/2024 6:22 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.