State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 1 segments
During 1990-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.7.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 311.2. The estimated rate was 322.4.
In 1991, the observed rate was 306.0. The estimated rate was 316.7.
In 1992, the observed rate was 313.8. The estimated rate was 311.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 311.8. The estimated rate was 305.5.
In 1994, the observed rate was 296.7. The estimated rate was 300.1.
In 1995, the observed rate was 286.4. The estimated rate was 294.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 288.2. The estimated rate was 289.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 294.3. The estimated rate was 284.4.
In 1998, the observed rate was 283.4. The estimated rate was 279.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 287.7. The estimated rate was 274.4.
In 2000, the observed rate was 265.9. The estimated rate was 269.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 264.9. The estimated rate was 264.8.
In 2002, the observed rate was 261.7. The estimated rate was 260.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 261.7. The estimated rate was 255.5.
In 2004, the observed rate was 243.7. The estimated rate was 251.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 242.9. The estimated rate was 246.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 247.4. The estimated rate was 242.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 235.3. The estimated rate was 237.8.
In 2008, the observed rate was 221.8. The estimated rate was 233.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 236.9. The estimated rate was 229.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 231.0. The estimated rate was 225.4.
In 2011, the observed rate was 226.9. The estimated rate was 221.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 219.7. The estimated rate was 217.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 217.1. The estimated rate was 213.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 212.1. The estimated rate was 209.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 202.2. The estimated rate was 206.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 203.0. The estimated rate was 202.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 201.6. The estimated rate was 198.9.
In 2018, the observed rate was 190.2. The estimated rate was 195.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 183.8. The estimated rate was 191.9.
In 2020, the observed rate was 187.5. The estimated rate was 188.5.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/17/2024 3:55 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.