State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, AI/AN Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 33.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 14.5 to 86.3.
During 2005-2011, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -6.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -18.4 to -1.1.
During 2011-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 11.6.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 144.5. The estimated rate was 136.2.
In 2003, the observed rate was 174.1. The estimated rate was 182.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 235.3. The estimated rate was 243.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 342.4. The estimated rate was 326.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 262.7. The estimated rate was 305.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 297.9. The estimated rate was 286.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 304.0. The estimated rate was 268.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 256.8. The estimated rate was 251.8.
In 2010, the observed rate was 205.1. The estimated rate was 236.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 192.6. The estimated rate was 221.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 213.6. The estimated rate was 229.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 266.5. The estimated rate was 238.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 265.8. The estimated rate was 247.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 322.4. The estimated rate was 257.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 217.4. The estimated rate was 267.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 278.5. The estimated rate was 277.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 275.4. The estimated rate was 288.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 258.8. The estimated rate was 299.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 333.8. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 346.1. The estimated rate was 323.3.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/18/2025 7:37 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.