Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data
Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2016-2020
Arizona Counties versus United States
All Cancer Sites
All Races, Male
Sorted by priority index
Explanation of Column HeadersState/County - The site and sex combination for this comparison.
Priority Index 1 - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.
Recent Trends - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:
- Rising when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
- Stable when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
- Falling when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
AAPC (95% Confidence Interval) - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program
Other Notes
- Larger confidence intervals indicate less stability of the data. This is often due to low counts that are not quite low enough to be suppressed.
- Data is currently being suppressed if there are fewer than 16 counts for the time period.
Line by Line Interpretation of the Report
United States
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.5 to -2.0.
- Rate : The death rate is 177.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 177.2 to 177.8 and 315,770 average annual deaths.
Arizona
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.6.
- Rate : The death rate is 154.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 153.2 to 156.5 and 6,655 average annual deaths.
Mohave County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 5.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.1.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is higher compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 204.7 with a 95% confidence interval from 195.7 to 214.2 and 442 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.2
Greenlee County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.0 to 0.2.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 172.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 120.1 to 238.2 and 7 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.0
La Paz County (3)
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to 0.1.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 152.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 126.1 to 184.9 and 37 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
Cochise County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 8.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -1.0.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 181.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 169.3 to 194.3 and 175 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.0
Gila County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 8.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.0 to -0.7.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 160.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 144.4 to 179.0 and 82 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
Pima County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 8.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.0 to -1.7.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 160.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 156.1 to 164.8 and 1,084 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
Yavapai County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 8.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -0.9.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 172.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 164.7 to 181.4 and 398 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.0
Apache County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -5.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -10.5 to -0.6.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 128.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 112.4 to 146.2 and 49 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.7
Coconino County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -0.8.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 135.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 121.9 to 149.5 and 83 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Graham County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -4.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -7.1 to -2.6.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 143.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 119.8 to 169.7 and 27 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Maricopa County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.8.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 152.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 150.2 to 154.8 and 3,528 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
Navajo County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -0.9.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 152.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 139.2 to 167.3 and 101 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
Pinal County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.3 to -1.7.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 135.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 129.1 to 141.1 and 416 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Santa Cruz County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.8 to -1.0.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 142.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 122.3 to 164.1 and 39 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Yuma County (3)
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -0.6.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 133.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 125.0 to 142.8 and 187 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Notes:
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 06/10/2024 7:27 am.
Rising when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
Stable when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
Falling when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
Rate Comparison
Above when 95% confident the rate is above and Rate Ratio3 > 1.10
Similar when unable to conclude above or below with confidence.
Below when 95% confident the rate is below and Rate Ratio3 < 0.90
1 Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.
2 Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint Version 4.8.0.0. Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.
3 Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.
Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). The Healthy People 2020 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.
State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).
3 Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected geographic areas.
Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.
Data for United States does not include Puerto Rico.