State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1992-2021)

Incidence, Hawaii, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female
Incidence, Hawaii, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <50, Female
Incidence, United States, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <50, Female

Incidence, Hawaii, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Line graph with 30 years and 3 segments
During 1992-1998, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.7 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.5 to 9.9.
During 1998-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.8 to -0.2.
During 2005-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.7 to 2.7.
Yearly points:
In 1992, the observed rate was 116.0. The estimated rate was 111.3.
In 1993, the observed rate was 120.6. The estimated rate was 115.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 112.9. The estimated rate was 119.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 119.2. The estimated rate was 123.9.
In 1996, the observed rate was 117.3. The estimated rate was 128.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 141.8. The estimated rate was 133.2.
In 1998, the observed rate was 143.0. The estimated rate was 138.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 136.6. The estimated rate was 135.3.
In 2000, the observed rate was 120.1. The estimated rate was 132.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 136.0. The estimated rate was 129.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 131.7. The estimated rate was 127.3.
In 2003, the observed rate was 123.1. The estimated rate was 124.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 122.5. The estimated rate was 122.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 118.0. The estimated rate was 119.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 110.6. The estimated rate was 121.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 120.7. The estimated rate was 123.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 124.0. The estimated rate was 124.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 130.8. The estimated rate was 126.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 131.3. The estimated rate was 127.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 126.0. The estimated rate was 129.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 138.5. The estimated rate was 131.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 142.4. The estimated rate was 133.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 137.4. The estimated rate was 134.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 134.8. The estimated rate was 136.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 133.0. The estimated rate was 138.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 142.8. The estimated rate was 140.2.
In 2018, the observed rate was 144.6. The estimated rate was 142.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 142.1. The estimated rate was 143.9.
In 2020, the observed rate was 131.0. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 140.6. The estimated rate was 147.7.

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Incidence, Hawaii, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <50, Female

Line graph with 30 years and 1 segments
During 1992-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.6 to 1.4.
Yearly points:
In 1992, the observed rate was 37.8. The estimated rate was 41.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 48.1. The estimated rate was 42.2.
In 1994, the observed rate was 39.2. The estimated rate was 42.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 41.9. The estimated rate was 43.1.
In 1996, the observed rate was 45.3. The estimated rate was 43.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 45.9. The estimated rate was 43.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 50.6. The estimated rate was 44.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 47.7. The estimated rate was 44.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 40.9. The estimated rate was 45.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 45.3. The estimated rate was 45.7.
In 2002, the observed rate was 46.8. The estimated rate was 46.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 44.3. The estimated rate was 46.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 49.1. The estimated rate was 47.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 43.8. The estimated rate was 47.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 38.8. The estimated rate was 48.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 48.2. The estimated rate was 48.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 50.2. The estimated rate was 48.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 49.7. The estimated rate was 49.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 50.1. The estimated rate was 49.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 46.8. The estimated rate was 50.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 52.8. The estimated rate was 50.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 53.8. The estimated rate was 51.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 52.8. The estimated rate was 51.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 52.7. The estimated rate was 52.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 43.2. The estimated rate was 52.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 52.0. The estimated rate was 53.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 56.7. The estimated rate was 54.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 58.2. The estimated rate was 54.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 54.4. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 59.3. The estimated rate was 55.6.

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Incidence, United States, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <50, Female

Line graph with 20 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2016, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.1 to 0.6.
During 2016-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 2.6.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 41.9. The estimated rate was 42.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 42.5. The estimated rate was 42.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 42.7. The estimated rate was 42.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 42.5. The estimated rate was 42.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 43.0. The estimated rate was 42.9.
In 2007, the observed rate was 43.2. The estimated rate was 43.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 43.9. The estimated rate was 43.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 43.9. The estimated rate was 43.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 42.4. The estimated rate was 43.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 43.4. The estimated rate was 43.9.
In 2012, the observed rate was 43.6. The estimated rate was 44.0.
In 2013, the observed rate was 44.2. The estimated rate was 44.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 44.6. The estimated rate was 44.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 45.4. The estimated rate was 44.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 44.9. The estimated rate was 44.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 45.4. The estimated rate was 45.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 46.1. The estimated rate was 46.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 47.2. The estimated rate was 46.9.
In 2020, the observed rate was 44.9. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 48.3. The estimated rate was 48.4.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/11/2025 10:06 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  
  

  The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
  
  Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.