State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Incidence, Hawaii, Prostate, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 44 years and 6 segments
During 1975-1987, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.4 to 3.4.
During 1987-1992, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 16.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 9.9 to 24.2.
During 1992-1995, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -11.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -24.7 to 3.4.
During 1995-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to 1.4.
During 2007-2014, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -7.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -9.9 to -4.9.
During 2014-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 9.7 with a 95% confidence interval from 4.7 to 15.0.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 80.9. The estimated rate was 71.9.
In 1976, the observed rate was 60.7. The estimated rate was 72.9.
In 1977, the observed rate was 85.0. The estimated rate was 74.0.
In 1978, the observed rate was 81.7. The estimated rate was 75.1.
In 1979, the observed rate was 67.0. The estimated rate was 76.2.
In 1980, the observed rate was 77.1. The estimated rate was 77.3.
In 1981, the observed rate was 78.9. The estimated rate was 78.4.
In 1982, the observed rate was 69.5. The estimated rate was 79.5.
In 1983, the observed rate was 71.7. The estimated rate was 80.7.
In 1984, the observed rate was 76.7. The estimated rate was 81.9.
In 1985, the observed rate was 93.4. The estimated rate was 83.0.
In 1986, the observed rate was 85.8. The estimated rate was 84.2.
In 1987, the observed rate was 84.3. The estimated rate was 85.5.
In 1988, the observed rate was 96.9. The estimated rate was 99.8.
In 1989, the observed rate was 124.3. The estimated rate was 116.6.
In 1990, the observed rate was 136.3. The estimated rate was 136.2.
In 1991, the observed rate was 162.8. The estimated rate was 159.1.
In 1992, the observed rate was 178.9. The estimated rate was 185.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 166.4. The estimated rate was 163.9.
In 1994, the observed rate was 144.2. The estimated rate was 144.7.
In 1995, the observed rate was 126.6. The estimated rate was 127.7.
In 1996, the observed rate was 124.5. The estimated rate was 128.1.
In 1997, the observed rate was 122.8. The estimated rate was 128.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 123.5. The estimated rate was 129.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 140.4. The estimated rate was 129.5.
In 2000, the observed rate was 140.9. The estimated rate was 130.0.
In 2001, the observed rate was 137.0. The estimated rate was 130.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 116.5. The estimated rate was 130.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 129.9. The estimated rate was 131.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 135.3. The estimated rate was 131.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 129.8. The estimated rate was 132.4.
In 2006, the observed rate was 137.1. The estimated rate was 132.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 131.1. The estimated rate was 133.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 122.4. The estimated rate was 123.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 113.2. The estimated rate was 114.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 104.0. The estimated rate was 105.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 104.4. The estimated rate was 97.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 84.2. The estimated rate was 90.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 79.2. The estimated rate was 83.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 80.1. The estimated rate was 77.5.
In 2015, the observed rate was 88.5. The estimated rate was 85.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 94.6. The estimated rate was 93.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 99.6. The estimated rate was 102.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 113.0. The estimated rate was 112.4.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 10/26/2021 11:03 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.