State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Kentucky, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 45 years and 3 segments
During 1975-1992, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 1.6.
During 1992-2016, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.2.
During 2016-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.6 to -1.1.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 257.4. The estimated rate was 257.2.
In 1976, the observed rate was 252.8. The estimated rate was 260.9.
In 1977, the observed rate was 273.5. The estimated rate was 264.5.
In 1978, the observed rate was 268.5. The estimated rate was 268.2.
In 1979, the observed rate was 272.5. The estimated rate was 272.0.
In 1980, the observed rate was 267.1. The estimated rate was 275.8.
In 1981, the observed rate was 281.4. The estimated rate was 279.7.
In 1982, the observed rate was 291.4. The estimated rate was 283.6.
In 1983, the observed rate was 298.4. The estimated rate was 287.6.
In 1984, the observed rate was 284.3. The estimated rate was 291.7.
In 1985, the observed rate was 288.6. The estimated rate was 295.8.
In 1986, the observed rate was 299.6. The estimated rate was 299.9.
In 1987, the observed rate was 301.3. The estimated rate was 304.1.
In 1988, the observed rate was 312.5. The estimated rate was 308.4.
In 1989, the observed rate was 309.5. The estimated rate was 312.7.
In 1990, the observed rate was 317.7. The estimated rate was 317.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 321.7. The estimated rate was 321.6.
In 1992, the observed rate was 320.6. The estimated rate was 326.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 311.3. The estimated rate was 321.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 317.5. The estimated rate was 317.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 312.7. The estimated rate was 313.4.
In 1996, the observed rate was 310.4. The estimated rate was 309.3.
In 1997, the observed rate was 306.4. The estimated rate was 305.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 297.9. The estimated rate was 301.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 293.7. The estimated rate was 297.3.
In 2000, the observed rate was 299.9. The estimated rate was 293.4.
In 2001, the observed rate was 300.8. The estimated rate was 289.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 298.6. The estimated rate was 285.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 289.8. The estimated rate was 282.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 270.6. The estimated rate was 278.4.
In 2005, the observed rate was 282.4. The estimated rate was 274.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 270.8. The estimated rate was 271.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 269.3. The estimated rate was 267.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 263.0. The estimated rate was 264.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 250.6. The estimated rate was 260.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 260.5. The estimated rate was 257.2.
In 2011, the observed rate was 245.7. The estimated rate was 253.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 249.4. The estimated rate was 250.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 247.8. The estimated rate was 247.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 246.0. The estimated rate was 244.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 240.9. The estimated rate was 240.8.
In 2016, the observed rate was 235.8. The estimated rate was 237.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 228.6. The estimated rate was 228.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 217.2. The estimated rate was 219.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 212.4. The estimated rate was 211.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 01/18/2022 6:29 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.