State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Kentucky, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -1.3.
During 2007-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.2 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 311.6. The estimated rate was 332.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 332.2. The estimated rate was 326.3.
In 1992, the observed rate was 318.4. The estimated rate was 320.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 321.1. The estimated rate was 315.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 320.3. The estimated rate was 310.0.
In 1995, the observed rate was 320.2. The estimated rate was 304.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 287.4. The estimated rate was 299.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 307.8. The estimated rate was 294.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 275.4. The estimated rate was 289.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 272.2. The estimated rate was 284.6.
In 2000, the observed rate was 284.3. The estimated rate was 279.8.
In 2001, the observed rate was 276.7. The estimated rate was 275.1.
In 2002, the observed rate was 275.7. The estimated rate was 270.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 277.1. The estimated rate was 265.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 254.9. The estimated rate was 261.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 248.8. The estimated rate was 256.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 254.1. The estimated rate was 252.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 247.3. The estimated rate was 248.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 232.7. The estimated rate was 241.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 250.9. The estimated rate was 235.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 231.4. The estimated rate was 229.2.
In 2011, the observed rate was 228.1. The estimated rate was 223.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 210.8. The estimated rate was 217.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 212.7. The estimated rate was 211.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 201.5. The estimated rate was 206.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 202.1. The estimated rate was 200.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 190.9. The estimated rate was 195.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 174.8. The estimated rate was 190.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 183.2. The estimated rate was 185.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 180.4. The estimated rate was 180.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 190.0. The estimated rate was 175.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/28/2024 1:14 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.