State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, New Jersey, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, New Jersey, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.4 to 5.6.
During 1993-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.4 to -2.1.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 281.2. The estimated rate was 284.8.
In 1991, the observed rate was 299.3. The estimated rate was 289.1.
In 1992, the observed rate was 283.5. The estimated rate was 293.4.
In 1993, the observed rate was 300.1. The estimated rate was 297.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 282.9. The estimated rate was 291.0.
In 1995, the observed rate was 294.3. The estimated rate was 284.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 281.3. The estimated rate was 278.1.
In 1997, the observed rate was 266.7. The estimated rate was 271.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 262.4. The estimated rate was 265.8.
In 1999, the observed rate was 260.4. The estimated rate was 259.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 259.2. The estimated rate was 254.0.
In 2001, the observed rate was 250.5. The estimated rate was 248.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 242.9. The estimated rate was 242.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 244.2. The estimated rate was 237.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 225.2. The estimated rate was 232.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 217.6. The estimated rate was 226.8.
In 2006, the observed rate was 220.8. The estimated rate was 221.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 211.7. The estimated rate was 216.8.
In 2008, the observed rate was 214.1. The estimated rate was 211.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 207.3. The estimated rate was 207.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 210.1. The estimated rate was 202.5.
In 2011, the observed rate was 201.7. The estimated rate was 198.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 187.0. The estimated rate was 193.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 183.7. The estimated rate was 189.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 188.9. The estimated rate was 185.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 185.4. The estimated rate was 180.8.
In 2016, the observed rate was 182.8. The estimated rate was 176.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 174.0. The estimated rate was 172.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 171.4. The estimated rate was 168.9.
In 2019, the observed rate was 159.6. The estimated rate was 165.2.
In 2020, the observed rate was 157.1. The estimated rate was 161.5.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/05/2024 4:54 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.