State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2000-2021)

Incidence, New Jersey, Prostate, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 22 years and 2 segments
During 2000-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.3 to -2.4.
During 2015-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 2.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to 9.6.
Yearly points:
In 2000, the observed rate was 207.6. The estimated rate was 215.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 217.0. The estimated rate was 208.1.
In 2002, the observed rate was 218.5. The estimated rate was 201.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 176.7. The estimated rate was 194.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 161.1. The estimated rate was 188.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 165.4. The estimated rate was 182.4.
In 2006, the observed rate was 183.8. The estimated rate was 176.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 188.9. The estimated rate was 170.8.
In 2008, the observed rate was 172.6. The estimated rate was 165.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 170.5. The estimated rate was 159.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 158.7. The estimated rate was 154.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 169.4. The estimated rate was 149.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 136.6. The estimated rate was 144.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 128.9. The estimated rate was 140.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 120.4. The estimated rate was 135.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 128.8. The estimated rate was 131.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 136.9. The estimated rate was 134.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 140.1. The estimated rate was 137.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 140.9. The estimated rate was 141.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 149.9. The estimated rate was 144.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 134.6. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 147.3. The estimated rate was 151.8.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 12/07/2024 4:19 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.1).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.