State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Mortality, New Jersey, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 44 years and 3 segments
During 1975-1991, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.3 to 0.6.
During 1991-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.0.
During 2001-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 716.2. The estimated rate was 719.8.
In 1976, the observed rate was 719.0. The estimated rate was 723.1.
In 1977, the observed rate was 725.6. The estimated rate was 726.4.
In 1978, the observed rate was 739.2. The estimated rate was 729.7.
In 1979, the observed rate was 732.2. The estimated rate was 733.0.
In 1980, the observed rate was 735.1. The estimated rate was 736.3.
In 1981, the observed rate was 736.9. The estimated rate was 739.7.
In 1982, the observed rate was 739.1. The estimated rate was 743.0.
In 1983, the observed rate was 755.8. The estimated rate was 746.4.
In 1984, the observed rate was 754.6. The estimated rate was 749.8.
In 1985, the observed rate was 756.6. The estimated rate was 753.2.
In 1986, the observed rate was 756.6. The estimated rate was 756.6.
In 1987, the observed rate was 752.8. The estimated rate was 760.0.
In 1988, the observed rate was 750.2. The estimated rate was 763.5.
In 1989, the observed rate was 777.6. The estimated rate was 767.0.
In 1990, the observed rate was 770.6. The estimated rate was 770.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 771.0. The estimated rate was 774.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 746.8. The estimated rate was 764.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 762.8. The estimated rate was 754.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 751.6. The estimated rate was 745.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 743.1. The estimated rate was 735.9.
In 1996, the observed rate was 732.8. The estimated rate was 726.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 717.0. The estimated rate was 717.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 703.6. The estimated rate was 708.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 701.6. The estimated rate was 699.6.
In 2000, the observed rate was 689.5. The estimated rate was 690.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 686.3. The estimated rate was 682.2.
In 2002, the observed rate was 664.3. The estimated rate was 668.2.
In 2003, the observed rate was 662.1. The estimated rate was 654.5.
In 2004, the observed rate was 630.4. The estimated rate was 641.1.
In 2005, the observed rate was 622.9. The estimated rate was 627.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 615.3. The estimated rate was 615.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 606.6. The estimated rate was 602.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 591.1. The estimated rate was 590.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 568.9. The estimated rate was 578.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 571.1. The estimated rate was 566.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 559.9. The estimated rate was 554.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 540.0. The estimated rate was 543.1.
In 2013, the observed rate was 525.4. The estimated rate was 532.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 525.8. The estimated rate was 521.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 508.8. The estimated rate was 510.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 503.5. The estimated rate was 499.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 492.2. The estimated rate was 489.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 477.2. The estimated rate was 479.6.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/29/2021 10:16 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2017) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2017 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.