State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, California, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -1.6.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.7 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 253.2. The estimated rate was 257.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 252.0. The estimated rate was 253.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 247.1. The estimated rate was 249.0.
In 1993, the observed rate was 245.9. The estimated rate was 244.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 242.5. The estimated rate was 240.8.
In 1995, the observed rate was 239.9. The estimated rate was 236.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 231.3. The estimated rate was 232.8.
In 1997, the observed rate was 231.4. The estimated rate was 228.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 221.7. The estimated rate was 225.1.
In 1999, the observed rate was 224.0. The estimated rate was 221.4.
In 2000, the observed rate was 217.2. The estimated rate was 217.7.
In 2001, the observed rate was 215.6. The estimated rate was 214.1.
In 2002, the observed rate was 212.8. The estimated rate was 210.5.
In 2003, the observed rate was 207.2. The estimated rate was 207.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 202.3. The estimated rate was 203.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 201.8. The estimated rate was 200.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 195.1. The estimated rate was 196.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 195.0. The estimated rate was 193.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 187.5. The estimated rate was 190.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 188.3. The estimated rate was 187.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 184.1. The estimated rate was 184.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 180.7. The estimated rate was 181.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 177.9. The estimated rate was 178.0.
In 2013, the observed rate was 174.6. The estimated rate was 175.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 171.7. The estimated rate was 172.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 170.1. The estimated rate was 169.3.
In 2016, the observed rate was 165.4. The estimated rate was 165.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 160.7. The estimated rate was 162.0.
In 2018, the observed rate was 159.5. The estimated rate was 158.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 154.0. The estimated rate was 155.1.
In 2020, the observed rate was 152.6. The estimated rate was 151.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/24/2024 4:54 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.