State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2000-2020)

Incidence, California, All Cancer Sites, AI/AN Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 21 years and 2 segments
During 2000-2014, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.3 to 8.2.
During 2014-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -7.7 to 1.8.
Yearly points:
In 2000, the observed rate was 246.3. The estimated rate was 274.7.
In 2001, the observed rate was 305.6. The estimated rate was 282.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 290.8. The estimated rate was 290.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 296.5. The estimated rate was 299.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 324.0. The estimated rate was 307.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 302.5. The estimated rate was 316.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 329.9. The estimated rate was 325.3.
In 2007, the observed rate was 348.9. The estimated rate was 334.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 340.6. The estimated rate was 344.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 340.5. The estimated rate was 354.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 366.4. The estimated rate was 364.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 365.2. The estimated rate was 374.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 382.5. The estimated rate was 385.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 407.7. The estimated rate was 396.3.
In 2014, the observed rate was 419.2. The estimated rate was 407.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 409.5. The estimated rate was 405.5.
In 2016, the observed rate was 384.3. The estimated rate was 403.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 388.6. The estimated rate was 401.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 398.6. The estimated rate was 399.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 411.0. The estimated rate was 397.2.
In 2020, the observed rate was 383.0. The estimated rate was 0.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/18/2024 7:45 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.