State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, California, Breast, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Line graph with 33 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.7 to -2.1.
During 2005-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.0.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 31.9. The estimated rate was 32.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 31.4. The estimated rate was 31.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 29.5. The estimated rate was 30.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 30.4. The estimated rate was 30.0.
In 1994, the observed rate was 30.6. The estimated rate was 29.3.
In 1995, the observed rate was 28.9. The estimated rate was 28.6.
In 1996, the observed rate was 28.8. The estimated rate was 27.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 26.8. The estimated rate was 27.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 26.2. The estimated rate was 26.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 25.1. The estimated rate was 26.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 25.7. The estimated rate was 25.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 24.9. The estimated rate was 24.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 24.0. The estimated rate was 24.3.
In 2003, the observed rate was 23.8. The estimated rate was 23.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 23.4. The estimated rate was 23.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 22.8. The estimated rate was 22.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 22.5. The estimated rate was 22.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 22.3. The estimated rate was 22.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 21.6. The estimated rate was 21.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 22.3. The estimated rate was 21.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 20.7. The estimated rate was 21.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 20.7. The estimated rate was 21.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 21.2. The estimated rate was 20.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 20.2. The estimated rate was 20.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 20.3. The estimated rate was 20.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 19.9. The estimated rate was 20.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 18.8. The estimated rate was 19.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 19.7. The estimated rate was 19.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 19.3. The estimated rate was 19.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 19.0. The estimated rate was 19.0.
In 2020, the observed rate was 18.7. The estimated rate was 18.7.
In 2021, the observed rate was 18.4. The estimated rate was 18.5.
In 2022, the observed rate was 18.8. The estimated rate was 18.3.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 10/03/2024 9:57 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.1).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.