State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, California, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Mortality, California, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 3 segments
During 1990-1994, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.2 to 0.4.
During 1994-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.4.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.7 to -1.7.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 671.5. The estimated rate was 673.3.
In 1991, the observed rate was 674.5. The estimated rate was 670.5.
In 1992, the observed rate was 665.4. The estimated rate was 667.6.
In 1993, the observed rate was 663.9. The estimated rate was 664.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 662.3. The estimated rate was 662.0.
In 1995, the observed rate was 651.3. The estimated rate was 652.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 634.6. The estimated rate was 642.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 632.3. The estimated rate was 633.1.
In 1998, the observed rate was 610.7. The estimated rate was 623.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 619.5. The estimated rate was 614.5.
In 2000, the observed rate was 607.9. The estimated rate was 605.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 603.0. The estimated rate was 596.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 594.3. The estimated rate was 587.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 582.9. The estimated rate was 579.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 567.6. The estimated rate was 570.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 567.5. The estimated rate was 562.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 551.7. The estimated rate was 553.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 550.3. The estimated rate was 545.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 534.5. The estimated rate was 537.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 532.7. The estimated rate was 529.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 524.0. The estimated rate was 521.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 511.8. The estimated rate was 514.1.
In 2012, the observed rate was 507.7. The estimated rate was 506.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 495.4. The estimated rate was 499.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 487.5. The estimated rate was 491.7.
In 2015, the observed rate was 484.9. The estimated rate was 484.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 473.1. The estimated rate was 473.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 462.5. The estimated rate was 463.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 454.8. The estimated rate was 453.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 440.7. The estimated rate was 443.2.
In 2020, the observed rate was 434.8. The estimated rate was 433.4.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/19/2024 2:27 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.