State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Mortality, California, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 44 years and 4 segments
During 1975-1982, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 1.6.
During 1982-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.1 to 0.3.
During 1993-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to -0.8.
During 2005-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 1,004.3. The estimated rate was 1,002.1.
In 1976, the observed rate was 1,013.7. The estimated rate was 1,014.2.
In 1977, the observed rate was 1,024.2. The estimated rate was 1,026.4.
In 1978, the observed rate was 1,051.0. The estimated rate was 1,038.9.
In 1979, the observed rate was 1,039.8. The estimated rate was 1,051.4.
In 1980, the observed rate was 1,062.8. The estimated rate was 1,064.1.
In 1981, the observed rate was 1,066.6. The estimated rate was 1,077.0.
In 1982, the observed rate was 1,095.5. The estimated rate was 1,090.0.
In 1983, the observed rate was 1,082.0. The estimated rate was 1,091.0.
In 1984, the observed rate was 1,092.8. The estimated rate was 1,092.0.
In 1985, the observed rate was 1,099.0. The estimated rate was 1,093.0.
In 1986, the observed rate was 1,101.9. The estimated rate was 1,093.9.
In 1987, the observed rate was 1,103.7. The estimated rate was 1,094.9.
In 1988, the observed rate was 1,097.4. The estimated rate was 1,095.9.
In 1989, the observed rate was 1,091.7. The estimated rate was 1,096.9.
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,094.6. The estimated rate was 1,097.8.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,101.0. The estimated rate was 1,098.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,096.9. The estimated rate was 1,099.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,098.0. The estimated rate was 1,100.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,095.1. The estimated rate was 1,090.1.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,081.3. The estimated rate was 1,079.4.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,060.6. The estimated rate was 1,068.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,058.0. The estimated rate was 1,058.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 1,027.4. The estimated rate was 1,048.2.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,052.2. The estimated rate was 1,038.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 1,033.3. The estimated rate was 1,027.8.
In 2001, the observed rate was 1,027.8. The estimated rate was 1,017.8.
In 2002, the observed rate was 1,015.2. The estimated rate was 1,007.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 998.5. The estimated rate was 998.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 974.1. The estimated rate was 988.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 980.9. The estimated rate was 978.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 953.7. The estimated rate was 963.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 952.5. The estimated rate was 948.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 924.0. The estimated rate was 933.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 925.6. The estimated rate was 918.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 910.0. The estimated rate was 903.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 886.9. The estimated rate was 889.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 880.7. The estimated rate was 875.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 858.3. The estimated rate was 861.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 845.1. The estimated rate was 848.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 842.3. The estimated rate was 834.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 821.5. The estimated rate was 821.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 806.0. The estimated rate was 808.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 792.5. The estimated rate was 795.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/16/2021 12:09 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2017) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2017 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.