State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2000-2021)

Incidence, California, Colon & Rectum, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 22 years and 4 segments
During 2000-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -4.3 to -2.3.
During 2005-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.0 to -0.4.
During 2008-2012, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -6.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -7.2 to -2.4.
During 2012-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.4 to -2.5.
Yearly points:
In 2000, the observed rate was 275.3. The estimated rate was 276.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 268.1. The estimated rate was 268.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 259.9. The estimated rate was 260.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 258.3. The estimated rate was 252.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 241.9. The estimated rate was 245.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 237.7. The estimated rate was 238.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 235.0. The estimated rate was 235.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 232.5. The estimated rate was 232.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 231.9. The estimated rate was 229.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 214.5. The estimated rate was 215.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 201.2. The estimated rate was 202.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 189.4. The estimated rate was 190.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 182.7. The estimated rate was 179.1.
In 2013, the observed rate was 172.8. The estimated rate was 173.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 171.1. The estimated rate was 168.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 163.5. The estimated rate was 163.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 156.5. The estimated rate was 159.2.
In 2017, the observed rate was 152.1. The estimated rate was 154.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 151.1. The estimated rate was 150.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 147.4. The estimated rate was 145.7.
In 2020, the observed rate was 127.9. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 137.4. The estimated rate was 137.3.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/18/2025 7:31 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.