State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2018)

Incidence, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 17 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 0.7.
During 2007-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to -0.7.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 489.1. The estimated rate was 483.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 480.5. The estimated rate was 483.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 480.0. The estimated rate was 483.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 480.6. The estimated rate was 483.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 483.5. The estimated rate was 484.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 487.9. The estimated rate was 484.5.
In 2008, the observed rate was 484.0. The estimated rate was 480.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 479.7. The estimated rate was 476.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 468.7. The estimated rate was 471.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 469.9. The estimated rate was 467.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 456.9. The estimated rate was 463.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 455.8. The estimated rate was 459.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 453.1. The estimated rate was 455.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 455.2. The estimated rate was 451.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 452.0. The estimated rate was 447.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 447.6. The estimated rate was 443.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 435.8. The estimated rate was 439.9.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/02/2022 7:55 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.