State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.8 to 0.9.
During 2008-2012, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.5 to -1.5.
During 2012-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.0 to 0.0.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 582.6. The estimated rate was 574.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 568.9. The estimated rate was 572.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 566.2. The estimated rate was 571.1.
In 2005, the observed rate was 563.5. The estimated rate was 569.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 568.0. The estimated rate was 567.9.
In 2007, the observed rate was 574.3. The estimated rate was 566.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 561.9. The estimated rate was 564.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 549.6. The estimated rate was 550.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 534.5. The estimated rate was 537.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 534.5. The estimated rate was 523.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 506.8. The estimated rate was 510.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 504.3. The estimated rate was 507.3.
In 2014, the observed rate was 497.8. The estimated rate was 503.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 499.3. The estimated rate was 500.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 497.0. The estimated rate was 496.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 497.1. The estimated rate was 493.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 493.2. The estimated rate was 490.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 497.3. The estimated rate was 486.8.
In 2020, the observed rate was 449.6. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 470.0. The estimated rate was 480.2.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/14/2025 4:42 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.