State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 31 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to 0.1.
During 1993-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.3.
During 2001-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.7.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.5 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 279.8. The estimated rate was 280.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 279.2. The estimated rate was 278.6.
In 1992, the observed rate was 276.5. The estimated rate was 277.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 275.9. The estimated rate was 275.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 272.1. The estimated rate was 271.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 268.5. The estimated rate was 267.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 263.7. The estimated rate was 263.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 258.1. The estimated rate was 259.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 253.6. The estimated rate was 255.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 252.7. The estimated rate was 251.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 248.5. The estimated rate was 248.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 245.1. The estimated rate was 244.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 241.6. The estimated rate was 240.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 235.8. The estimated rate was 235.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 230.3. The estimated rate was 231.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 228.1. The estimated rate was 227.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 222.6. The estimated rate was 223.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 219.3. The estimated rate was 219.5.
In 2008, the observed rate was 215.3. The estimated rate was 215.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 211.2. The estimated rate was 211.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 208.8. The estimated rate was 207.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 204.4. The estimated rate was 204.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 200.7. The estimated rate was 200.6.
In 2013, the observed rate was 196.7. The estimated rate was 197.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 193.8. The estimated rate was 193.5.
In 2015, the observed rate was 190.2. The estimated rate was 190.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 186.0. The estimated rate was 185.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 181.7. The estimated rate was 181.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 177.2. The estimated rate was 177.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 173.1. The estimated rate was 173.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 170.3. The estimated rate was 169.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/10/2024 4:55 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.