State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Line graph with 45 years and 6 segments
During 1975-1990, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.5 to 0.6.
During 1990-1995, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.5 to 0.1.
During 1995-1998, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -0.3.
During 1998-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to 0.5.
During 2001-2016, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.3.
During 2016-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.5 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 160.0. The estimated rate was 160.8.
In 1976, the observed rate was 162.7. The estimated rate was 161.7.
In 1977, the observed rate was 162.9. The estimated rate was 162.7.
In 1978, the observed rate was 163.8. The estimated rate was 163.6.
In 1979, the observed rate was 163.1. The estimated rate was 164.5.
In 1980, the observed rate was 165.8. The estimated rate was 165.5.
In 1981, the observed rate was 165.9. The estimated rate was 166.4.
In 1982, the observed rate was 167.4. The estimated rate was 167.4.
In 1983, the observed rate was 168.3. The estimated rate was 168.3.
In 1984, the observed rate was 170.5. The estimated rate was 169.3.
In 1985, the observed rate was 171.0. The estimated rate was 170.3.
In 1986, the observed rate was 171.6. The estimated rate was 171.2.
In 1987, the observed rate was 171.5. The estimated rate was 172.2.
In 1988, the observed rate was 172.5. The estimated rate was 173.2.
In 1989, the observed rate was 174.3. The estimated rate was 174.2.
In 1990, the observed rate was 174.7. The estimated rate was 175.2.
In 1991, the observed rate was 175.3. The estimated rate was 174.9.
In 1992, the observed rate was 174.4. The estimated rate was 174.5.
In 1993, the observed rate was 174.6. The estimated rate was 174.2.
In 1994, the observed rate was 174.1. The estimated rate was 173.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 173.4. The estimated rate was 173.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 171.2. The estimated rate was 171.4.
In 1997, the observed rate was 169.0. The estimated rate was 169.4.
In 1998, the observed rate was 166.9. The estimated rate was 167.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 167.2. The estimated rate was 166.6.
In 2000, the observed rate was 166.7. The estimated rate was 166.0.
In 2001, the observed rate was 164.6. The estimated rate was 165.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 163.4. The estimated rate was 163.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 161.2. The estimated rate was 160.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 157.9. The estimated rate was 158.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 156.5. The estimated rate was 156.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 154.6. The estimated rate was 154.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 152.0. The estimated rate was 152.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 149.3. The estimated rate was 149.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 147.1. The estimated rate was 147.8.
In 2010, the observed rate was 145.7. The estimated rate was 145.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 143.6. The estimated rate was 143.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 141.9. The estimated rate was 141.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 139.4. The estimated rate was 139.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 138.1. The estimated rate was 137.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 136.1. The estimated rate was 135.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 134.2. The estimated rate was 134.0.
In 2017, the observed rate was 131.4. The estimated rate was 131.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 128.6. The estimated rate was 128.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 125.9. The estimated rate was 126.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/25/2022 10:21 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.