State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States**, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.1 to 1.1.
During 1993-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.8 to -0.5.
During 2001-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.3.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 204.3. The estimated rate was 205.2.
In 1991, the observed rate was 207.9. The estimated rate was 206.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 206.4. The estimated rate was 207.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 207.7. The estimated rate was 208.1.
In 1994, the observed rate was 207.7. The estimated rate was 206.8.
In 1995, the observed rate was 205.9. The estimated rate was 205.5.
In 1996, the observed rate was 203.5. The estimated rate was 204.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 202.8. The estimated rate was 202.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 200.5. The estimated rate was 201.6.
In 1999, the observed rate was 200.9. The estimated rate was 200.3.
In 2000, the observed rate was 199.7. The estimated rate was 199.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 197.3. The estimated rate was 197.8.
In 2002, the observed rate was 195.8. The estimated rate was 195.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 192.6. The estimated rate was 192.5.
In 2004, the observed rate was 189.0. The estimated rate was 189.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 187.6. The estimated rate was 187.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 185.0. The estimated rate was 184.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 182.3. The estimated rate was 182.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 179.5. The estimated rate was 179.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 177.0. The estimated rate was 177.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 175.3. The estimated rate was 174.9.
In 2011, the observed rate was 172.6. The estimated rate was 172.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 170.2. The estimated rate was 170.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 167.5. The estimated rate was 167.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 165.9. The estimated rate was 165.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 163.4. The estimated rate was 163.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 160.6. The estimated rate was 160.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 157.4. The estimated rate was 157.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 154.1. The estimated rate was 154.4.
In 2019, the observed rate was 150.9. The estimated rate was 151.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 149.3. The estimated rate was 148.7.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 12/03/2023 9:23 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
  
  ** Hispanic mortality data for the United States has been excluded for the following states: Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma. The data on Hispanic and non-Hispanic mortality for these states may be unreliable for the time period used in the generation of the trend (1992-2019) and has been excluded from the calculation of the United States trend. This was based on the NCHS Policy.