State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 3 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.2 to 2.4.
During 1993-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to -1.1.
During 2001-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 264.0. The estimated rate was 268.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 277.7. The estimated rate was 271.5.
In 1992, the observed rate was 274.5. The estimated rate was 275.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 276.9. The estimated rate was 278.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 274.1. The estimated rate was 274.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 270.9. The estimated rate was 271.0.
In 1996, the observed rate was 267.2. The estimated rate was 267.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 265.8. The estimated rate was 263.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 259.0. The estimated rate was 259.8.
In 1999, the observed rate was 257.1. The estimated rate was 256.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 251.7. The estimated rate was 252.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 248.0. The estimated rate was 249.0.
In 2002, the observed rate was 244.6. The estimated rate was 243.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 239.1. The estimated rate was 238.9.
In 2004, the observed rate was 232.9. The estimated rate was 234.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 229.0. The estimated rate was 229.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 223.4. The estimated rate was 224.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 220.9. The estimated rate was 219.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 213.8. The estimated rate was 215.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 210.1. The estimated rate was 211.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 207.8. The estimated rate was 206.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 204.3. The estimated rate was 202.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 199.0. The estimated rate was 198.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 195.1. The estimated rate was 194.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 191.0. The estimated rate was 190.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 186.1. The estimated rate was 186.3.
In 2016, the observed rate was 183.4. The estimated rate was 182.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 178.8. The estimated rate was 178.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 174.3. The estimated rate was 175.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 171.4. The estimated rate was 171.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 166.8. The estimated rate was 168.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/20/2024 6:36 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.