State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 33 years and 3 segments
During 1990-1994, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.5 to 0.4.
During 1994-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.3.
During 2001-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 278.4. The estimated rate was 278.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 279.0. The estimated rate was 278.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 275.9. The estimated rate was 277.5.
In 1993, the observed rate was 277.9. The estimated rate was 277.0.
In 1994, the observed rate was 276.0. The estimated rate was 276.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 272.2. The estimated rate was 272.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 268.2. The estimated rate was 267.8.
In 1997, the observed rate was 264.8. The estimated rate was 263.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 257.9. The estimated rate was 259.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 255.8. The estimated rate was 255.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 250.6. The estimated rate was 251.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 246.9. The estimated rate was 247.2.
In 2002, the observed rate was 243.2. The estimated rate was 242.2.
In 2003, the observed rate was 237.8. The estimated rate was 237.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 231.2. The estimated rate was 232.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 227.5. The estimated rate was 227.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 222.4. The estimated rate was 223.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 220.1. The estimated rate was 218.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 212.9. The estimated rate was 214.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 209.0. The estimated rate was 210.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 206.8. The estimated rate was 206.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 203.5. The estimated rate was 201.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 198.5. The estimated rate was 197.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 194.3. The estimated rate was 193.8.
In 2014, the observed rate was 190.3. The estimated rate was 189.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 185.6. The estimated rate was 186.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 183.8. The estimated rate was 182.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 178.9. The estimated rate was 178.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 174.6. The estimated rate was 175.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 171.5. The estimated rate was 171.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 167.7. The estimated rate was 168.2.
In 2021, the observed rate was 163.5. The estimated rate was 164.8.
In 2022, the observed rate was 161.8. The estimated rate was 161.5.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/18/2025 7:31 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  
  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.