State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, United States, All Cancer Sites, AI/AN Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 3.5.
During 2007-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.3 to 0.7.
During 2018-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.3 to -0.4.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 367.0. The estimated rate was 368.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 376.5. The estimated rate was 375.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 386.5. The estimated rate was 381.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 382.9. The estimated rate was 388.6.
In 2006, the observed rate was 397.3. The estimated rate was 395.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 401.6. The estimated rate was 402.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 402.1. The estimated rate was 404.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 402.5. The estimated rate was 406.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 413.5. The estimated rate was 407.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 415.5. The estimated rate was 409.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 404.0. The estimated rate was 411.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 416.6. The estimated rate was 413.3.
In 2014, the observed rate was 410.5. The estimated rate was 415.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 421.7. The estimated rate was 417.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 420.4. The estimated rate was 418.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 419.3. The estimated rate was 420.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 421.8. The estimated rate was 422.7.
In 2019, the observed rate was 416.4. The estimated rate was 416.9.
In 2020, the observed rate was 385.3. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 405.8. The estimated rate was 405.6.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/03/2025 12:55 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.