State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, API Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, API Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1994, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 1.9.
During 1994-1997, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -2.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.2 to 0.5.
During 1997-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to -1.1.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.5 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 133.8. The estimated rate was 133.8.
In 1991, the observed rate was 134.2. The estimated rate was 134.7.
In 1992, the observed rate was 135.8. The estimated rate was 135.5.
In 1993, the observed rate was 137.1. The estimated rate was 136.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 136.3. The estimated rate was 137.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 133.9. The estimated rate was 133.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 128.9. The estimated rate was 129.3.
In 1997, the observed rate was 126.0. The estimated rate was 125.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 124.3. The estimated rate was 123.9.
In 1999, the observed rate was 124.1. The estimated rate was 122.4.
In 2000, the observed rate was 120.6. The estimated rate was 120.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 121.1. The estimated rate was 119.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 116.1. The estimated rate was 118.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 116.6. The estimated rate was 116.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 113.8. The estimated rate was 115.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 114.4. The estimated rate was 113.8.
In 2006, the observed rate was 110.7. The estimated rate was 112.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 110.7. The estimated rate was 111.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 109.9. The estimated rate was 109.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 107.8. The estimated rate was 108.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 108.3. The estimated rate was 107.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 106.5. The estimated rate was 105.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 105.2. The estimated rate was 104.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 101.9. The estimated rate was 103.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 101.3. The estimated rate was 101.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 101.9. The estimated rate was 100.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 98.5. The estimated rate was 98.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 96.7. The estimated rate was 96.6.
In 2018, the observed rate was 94.1. The estimated rate was 94.7.
In 2019, the observed rate was 92.4. The estimated rate was 92.8.
In 2020, the observed rate was 91.4. The estimated rate was 90.9.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/04/2024 11:51 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.