State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 0.5.
During 1993-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to -0.8.
During 2001-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.4.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.3 to -1.8.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 711.1. The estimated rate was 711.3.
In 1991, the observed rate was 712.0. The estimated rate was 710.7.
In 1992, the observed rate was 707.8. The estimated rate was 710.0.
In 1993, the observed rate was 709.4. The estimated rate was 709.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 704.4. The estimated rate was 702.5.
In 1995, the observed rate was 698.8. The estimated rate was 695.7.
In 1996, the observed rate was 689.9. The estimated rate was 688.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 678.5. The estimated rate was 682.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 669.8. The estimated rate was 675.6.
In 1999, the observed rate was 670.8. The estimated rate was 669.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 664.5. The estimated rate was 662.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 655.5. The estimated rate was 656.1.
In 2002, the observed rate was 649.6. The estimated rate was 646.5.
In 2003, the observed rate was 638.2. The estimated rate was 637.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 625.4. The estimated rate was 627.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 619.8. The estimated rate was 618.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 609.6. The estimated rate was 609.6.
In 2007, the observed rate was 600.9. The estimated rate was 600.7.
In 2008, the observed rate was 591.0. The estimated rate was 592.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 580.9. The estimated rate was 583.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 576.4. The estimated rate was 574.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 566.8. The estimated rate was 566.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 558.9. The estimated rate was 558.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 548.3. The estimated rate was 550.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 542.3. The estimated rate was 542.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 534.5. The estimated rate was 534.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 524.0. The estimated rate was 523.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 513.1. The estimated rate was 512.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 501.2. The estimated rate was 501.9.
In 2019, the observed rate was 490.1. The estimated rate was 491.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 482.5. The estimated rate was 481.4.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/19/2024 2:30 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.