State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 44 years and 4 segments
During 1975-1992, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 0.9.
During 1992-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to -0.4.
During 2001-2011, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.3.
During 2011-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 995.2. The estimated rate was 1,007.9.
In 1976, the observed rate was 1,018.3. The estimated rate was 1,016.6.
In 1977, the observed rate was 1,023.3. The estimated rate was 1,025.3.
In 1978, the observed rate was 1,035.4. The estimated rate was 1,034.1.
In 1979, the observed rate was 1,042.7. The estimated rate was 1,042.9.
In 1980, the observed rate was 1,059.1. The estimated rate was 1,051.9.
In 1981, the observed rate was 1,060.7. The estimated rate was 1,060.9.
In 1982, the observed rate was 1,074.6. The estimated rate was 1,069.9.
In 1983, the observed rate was 1,083.5. The estimated rate was 1,079.1.
In 1984, the observed rate was 1,093.0. The estimated rate was 1,088.4.
In 1985, the observed rate was 1,097.2. The estimated rate was 1,097.7.
In 1986, the observed rate was 1,107.5. The estimated rate was 1,107.1.
In 1987, the observed rate was 1,111.8. The estimated rate was 1,116.6.
In 1988, the observed rate was 1,120.3. The estimated rate was 1,126.1.
In 1989, the observed rate was 1,139.1. The estimated rate was 1,135.8.
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,147.4. The estimated rate was 1,145.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,154.0. The estimated rate was 1,155.3.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,153.7. The estimated rate was 1,165.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,161.8. The estimated rate was 1,158.9.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,157.0. The estimated rate was 1,152.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,153.6. The estimated rate was 1,146.3.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,142.2. The estimated rate was 1,140.1.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,128.5. The estimated rate was 1,133.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 1,119.6. The estimated rate was 1,127.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,125.9. The estimated rate was 1,121.6.
In 2000, the observed rate was 1,119.8. The estimated rate was 1,115.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 1,104.4. The estimated rate was 1,109.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 1,097.2. The estimated rate was 1,094.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 1,079.7. The estimated rate was 1,079.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 1,060.8. The estimated rate was 1,065.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 1,053.2. The estimated rate was 1,050.6.
In 2006, the observed rate was 1,036.1. The estimated rate was 1,036.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 1,025.1. The estimated rate was 1,022.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 1,009.5. The estimated rate was 1,008.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 989.8. The estimated rate was 994.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 984.1. The estimated rate was 981.4.
In 2011, the observed rate was 966.2. The estimated rate was 968.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 950.5. The estimated rate was 951.6.
In 2013, the observed rate was 932.9. The estimated rate was 935.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 921.3. The estimated rate was 919.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 908.2. The estimated rate was 903.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 891.0. The estimated rate was 888.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 873.9. The estimated rate was 873.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 853.3. The estimated rate was 858.2.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/16/2021 11:55 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2017) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2017 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.