State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 33 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.0 to 1.0.
During 1993-2001, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to -0.5.
During 2001-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.3.
During 2015-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,147.4. The estimated rate was 1,147.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,154.0. The estimated rate was 1,152.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,153.7. The estimated rate was 1,156.9.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,161.8. The estimated rate was 1,161.5.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,157.0. The estimated rate was 1,154.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,153.6. The estimated rate was 1,148.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,142.2. The estimated rate was 1,141.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,128.5. The estimated rate was 1,135.0.
In 1998, the observed rate was 1,119.7. The estimated rate was 1,128.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,125.8. The estimated rate was 1,121.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 1,119.9. The estimated rate was 1,115.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 1,104.4. The estimated rate was 1,109.0.
In 2002, the observed rate was 1,097.2. The estimated rate was 1,094.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 1,079.7. The estimated rate was 1,079.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 1,060.9. The estimated rate was 1,064.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 1,053.3. The estimated rate was 1,050.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 1,036.1. The estimated rate was 1,036.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 1,025.1. The estimated rate was 1,022.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 1,009.4. The estimated rate was 1,008.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 989.8. The estimated rate was 994.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 984.6. The estimated rate was 981.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 968.7. The estimated rate was 967.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 955.1. The estimated rate was 954.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 939.5. The estimated rate was 941.8.
In 2014, the observed rate was 929.8. The estimated rate was 929.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 918.4. The estimated rate was 916.5.
In 2016, the observed rate was 903.0. The estimated rate was 901.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 888.1. The estimated rate was 887.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 869.8. The estimated rate was 873.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 854.3. The estimated rate was 859.3.
In 2020, the observed rate was 842.5. The estimated rate was 845.6.
In 2021, the observed rate was 835.2. The estimated rate was 832.1.
In 2022, the observed rate was 821.9. The estimated rate was 818.8.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/01/2025 11:55 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.