State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 4 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.1 to 1.1.
During 1993-2002, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.8 to -0.5.
During 2002-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.4.
During 2015-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to -1.7.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,147.4. The estimated rate was 1,147.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,154.0. The estimated rate was 1,152.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,153.7. The estimated rate was 1,157.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,161.8. The estimated rate was 1,163.0.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,157.0. The estimated rate was 1,155.7.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,153.6. The estimated rate was 1,148.4.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,142.2. The estimated rate was 1,141.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,128.5. The estimated rate was 1,134.0.
In 1998, the observed rate was 1,119.7. The estimated rate was 1,126.9.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,125.8. The estimated rate was 1,119.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 1,119.9. The estimated rate was 1,112.7.
In 2001, the observed rate was 1,104.4. The estimated rate was 1,105.7.
In 2002, the observed rate was 1,097.2. The estimated rate was 1,098.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 1,079.7. The estimated rate was 1,082.9.
In 2004, the observed rate was 1,060.9. The estimated rate was 1,067.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 1,053.3. The estimated rate was 1,051.8.
In 2006, the observed rate was 1,036.1. The estimated rate was 1,036.6.
In 2007, the observed rate was 1,025.1. The estimated rate was 1,021.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 1,009.4. The estimated rate was 1,006.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 989.8. The estimated rate was 992.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 984.1. The estimated rate was 978.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 966.2. The estimated rate was 963.9.
In 2012, the observed rate was 950.6. The estimated rate was 949.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 933.1. The estimated rate was 936.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 921.5. The estimated rate was 922.7.
In 2015, the observed rate was 908.4. The estimated rate was 909.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 891.1. The estimated rate was 891.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 874.4. The estimated rate was 873.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 854.5. The estimated rate was 856.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 837.5. The estimated rate was 839.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 825.0. The estimated rate was 822.7.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/30/2023 4:59 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.