State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Alabama, All Cancer Sites, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 4 segments
During 1975-1978, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 4.7 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 8.4.
During 1978-1992, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 1.4.
During 1992-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to -0.8.
During 2007-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.4 to -1.8.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 200.3. The estimated rate was 201.9.
In 1976, the observed rate was 214.2. The estimated rate was 211.4.
In 1977, the observed rate was 220.6. The estimated rate was 221.4.
In 1978, the observed rate was 231.7. The estimated rate was 231.8.
In 1979, the observed rate was 237.7. The estimated rate was 234.4.
In 1980, the observed rate was 237.1. The estimated rate was 237.0.
In 1981, the observed rate was 232.9. The estimated rate was 239.6.
In 1982, the observed rate was 237.0. The estimated rate was 242.3.
In 1983, the observed rate was 243.0. The estimated rate was 244.9.
In 1984, the observed rate was 256.7. The estimated rate was 247.6.
In 1985, the observed rate was 256.5. The estimated rate was 250.4.
In 1986, the observed rate was 252.9. The estimated rate was 253.2.
In 1987, the observed rate was 246.2. The estimated rate was 256.0.
In 1988, the observed rate was 264.4. The estimated rate was 258.8.
In 1989, the observed rate was 258.8. The estimated rate was 261.7.
In 1990, the observed rate was 273.2. The estimated rate was 264.6.
In 1991, the observed rate was 262.1. The estimated rate was 267.5.
In 1992, the observed rate was 272.2. The estimated rate was 270.5.
In 1993, the observed rate was 267.0. The estimated rate was 267.6.
In 1994, the observed rate was 267.0. The estimated rate was 264.7.
In 1995, the observed rate was 257.2. The estimated rate was 261.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 255.5. The estimated rate was 259.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 257.7. The estimated rate was 256.2.
In 1998, the observed rate was 254.6. The estimated rate was 253.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 246.3. The estimated rate was 250.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 243.7. The estimated rate was 248.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 257.2. The estimated rate was 245.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 242.5. The estimated rate was 242.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 240.7. The estimated rate was 240.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 235.9. The estimated rate was 237.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 236.1. The estimated rate was 235.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 225.3. The estimated rate was 232.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 234.1. The estimated rate was 230.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 225.0. The estimated rate was 225.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 223.7. The estimated rate was 220.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 209.8. The estimated rate was 215.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 211.7. The estimated rate was 211.1.
In 2012, the observed rate was 205.9. The estimated rate was 206.6.
In 2013, the observed rate was 205.7. The estimated rate was 202.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 198.9. The estimated rate was 197.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 195.2. The estimated rate was 193.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 187.8. The estimated rate was 189.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 183.6. The estimated rate was 185.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 179.6. The estimated rate was 181.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 180.0. The estimated rate was 177.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/02/2022 5:02 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.