State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2013, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -0.3.
During 2013-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.2 to 1.8.
During 2018-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -4.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -5.9 to -2.5.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 451.7. The estimated rate was 449.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 443.4. The estimated rate was 447.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 440.9. The estimated rate was 445.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 436.6. The estimated rate was 442.6.
In 2006, the observed rate was 441.6. The estimated rate was 440.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 444.2. The estimated rate was 437.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 436.8. The estimated rate was 435.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 444.3. The estimated rate was 433.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 429.8. The estimated rate was 430.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 431.5. The estimated rate was 428.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 420.4. The estimated rate was 426.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 419.4. The estimated rate was 423.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 428.7. The estimated rate was 426.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 427.9. The estimated rate was 428.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 424.9. The estimated rate was 430.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 432.4. The estimated rate was 432.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 429.8. The estimated rate was 434.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 427.7. The estimated rate was 416.8.
In 2020, the observed rate was 395.7. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 379.7. The estimated rate was 383.4.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 01/23/2025 6:55 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
For Hispanic incidence data, NHIA (NAACCR Hispanic Identification Algorithm) was used for Hispanic Ethnicity (see Technical Notes section of the USCS ).

Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.