State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2014, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -1.2.
During 2014-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.9 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 201.7. The estimated rate was 205.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 205.0. The estimated rate was 202.3.
In 1992, the observed rate was 201.8. The estimated rate was 199.6.
In 1993, the observed rate was 199.0. The estimated rate was 196.9.
In 1994, the observed rate was 196.8. The estimated rate was 194.3.
In 1995, the observed rate was 185.7. The estimated rate was 191.7.
In 1996, the observed rate was 188.4. The estimated rate was 189.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 184.6. The estimated rate was 186.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 178.4. The estimated rate was 184.2.
In 1999, the observed rate was 185.1. The estimated rate was 181.7.
In 2000, the observed rate was 178.7. The estimated rate was 179.3.
In 2001, the observed rate was 176.9. The estimated rate was 176.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 177.2. The estimated rate was 174.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 175.7. The estimated rate was 172.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 171.3. The estimated rate was 169.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 169.0. The estimated rate was 167.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 168.1. The estimated rate was 165.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 163.5. The estimated rate was 163.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 157.4. The estimated rate was 161.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 156.0. The estimated rate was 158.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 157.4. The estimated rate was 156.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 153.4. The estimated rate was 154.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 153.4. The estimated rate was 152.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 150.6. The estimated rate was 150.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 148.3. The estimated rate was 148.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 146.7. The estimated rate was 145.3.
In 2016, the observed rate was 141.9. The estimated rate was 142.0.
In 2017, the observed rate was 138.9. The estimated rate was 138.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 135.1. The estimated rate was 135.7.
In 2019, the observed rate was 131.6. The estimated rate was 132.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 130.6. The estimated rate was 129.6.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/26/2024 10:59 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.