State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 33 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -4.3 to -0.3.
During 2015-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to 4.8.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 253.9. The estimated rate was 265.6.
In 1991, the observed rate was 260.0. The estimated rate was 260.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 270.2. The estimated rate was 255.3.
In 1993, the observed rate was 209.8. The estimated rate was 250.3.
In 1994, the observed rate was 235.4. The estimated rate was 245.4.
In 1995, the observed rate was 256.9. The estimated rate was 240.6.
In 1996, the observed rate was 242.5. The estimated rate was 235.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 254.5. The estimated rate was 231.2.
In 1998, the observed rate was 231.3. The estimated rate was 226.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 219.2. The estimated rate was 222.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 224.9. The estimated rate was 217.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 213.5. The estimated rate was 213.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 214.5. The estimated rate was 209.4.
In 2003, the observed rate was 214.9. The estimated rate was 205.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 211.6. The estimated rate was 201.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 189.7. The estimated rate was 197.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 171.7. The estimated rate was 193.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 188.1. The estimated rate was 189.7.
In 2008, the observed rate was 170.3. The estimated rate was 185.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 176.2. The estimated rate was 182.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 187.4. The estimated rate was 178.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 166.4. The estimated rate was 175.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 176.4. The estimated rate was 171.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 180.1. The estimated rate was 168.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 165.5. The estimated rate was 165.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 154.4. The estimated rate was 161.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 169.7. The estimated rate was 161.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 156.6. The estimated rate was 161.0.
In 2018, the observed rate was 157.0. The estimated rate was 160.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 168.2. The estimated rate was 160.1.
In 2020, the observed rate was 160.8. The estimated rate was 159.7.
In 2021, the observed rate was 154.4. The estimated rate was 159.3.
In 2022, the observed rate was 159.4. The estimated rate was 158.9.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/24/2025 10:35 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  
  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.