State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, AI/AN Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2010, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 3.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.1 to 8.0.
During 2010-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.4 to 6.4.
During 2018-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -5.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -8.5 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 270.5. The estimated rate was 278.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 308.0. The estimated rate was 288.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 281.7. The estimated rate was 298.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 313.6. The estimated rate was 307.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 311.9. The estimated rate was 318.3.
In 2007, the observed rate was 333.2. The estimated rate was 328.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 339.1. The estimated rate was 340.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 355.6. The estimated rate was 351.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 370.1. The estimated rate was 363.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 349.9. The estimated rate was 357.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 354.6. The estimated rate was 351.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 342.2. The estimated rate was 345.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 347.6. The estimated rate was 339.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 323.8. The estimated rate was 334.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 317.6. The estimated rate was 328.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 317.0. The estimated rate was 323.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 332.0. The estimated rate was 318.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 305.8. The estimated rate was 301.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 250.2. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 269.3. The estimated rate was 270.7.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/03/2025 12:55 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.