State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Arizona, Prostate, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 20 years and 4 segments
During 2002-2006, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 5.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 13.8.
During 2006-2012, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -9.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -15.9 to -6.4.
During 2012-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.8 to 9.9.
During 2018-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -6.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -14.1 to -1.4.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 123.3. The estimated rate was 117.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 122.5. The estimated rate was 123.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 124.6. The estimated rate was 130.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 131.2. The estimated rate was 137.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 149.1. The estimated rate was 144.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 136.4. The estimated rate was 131.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 113.6. The estimated rate was 119.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 108.8. The estimated rate was 108.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 100.5. The estimated rate was 98.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 90.6. The estimated rate was 89.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 78.6. The estimated rate was 81.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 80.3. The estimated rate was 82.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 88.5. The estimated rate was 83.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 87.4. The estimated rate was 84.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 81.7. The estimated rate was 86.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 88.9. The estimated rate was 87.3.
In 2018, the observed rate was 84.6. The estimated rate was 88.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 86.4. The estimated rate was 82.3.
In 2020, the observed rate was 71.5. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 70.0. The estimated rate was 71.3.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 03/22/2025 12:20 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.