State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <65, Both Sexes

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages <65, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 5 segments
During 1990-1997, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.5 to -1.8.
During 1997-2002, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.9 to 0.8.
During 2002-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -4.4 to -1.9.
During 2008-2013, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to 1.7.
During 2013-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.9 to -1.4.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 69.2. The estimated rate was 73.2.
In 1991, the observed rate was 73.8. The estimated rate was 71.3.
In 1992, the observed rate was 69.4. The estimated rate was 69.4.
In 1993, the observed rate was 69.9. The estimated rate was 67.6.
In 1994, the observed rate was 66.8. The estimated rate was 65.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 63.4. The estimated rate was 64.1.
In 1996, the observed rate was 62.4. The estimated rate was 62.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 60.1. The estimated rate was 60.8.
In 1998, the observed rate was 60.1. The estimated rate was 60.2.
In 1999, the observed rate was 59.9. The estimated rate was 59.5.
In 2000, the observed rate was 58.0. The estimated rate was 58.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 58.1. The estimated rate was 58.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 58.4. The estimated rate was 57.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 55.7. The estimated rate was 55.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 54.2. The estimated rate was 54.1.
In 2005, the observed rate was 51.9. The estimated rate was 52.4.
In 2006, the observed rate was 50.6. The estimated rate was 50.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 49.9. The estimated rate was 49.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 47.5. The estimated rate was 47.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 47.4. The estimated rate was 47.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 47.3. The estimated rate was 47.5.
In 2011, the observed rate was 46.4. The estimated rate was 47.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 48.1. The estimated rate was 47.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 47.9. The estimated rate was 47.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 45.9. The estimated rate was 46.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 45.5. The estimated rate was 45.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 43.9. The estimated rate was 44.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 43.0. The estimated rate was 43.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 43.2. The estimated rate was 42.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 42.2. The estimated rate was 41.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 40.0. The estimated rate was 40.7.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/17/2024 8:22 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.