State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Arizona, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2005, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to -0.7.
During 2005-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,080.8. The estimated rate was 1,079.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,065.6. The estimated rate was 1,069.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,079.8. The estimated rate was 1,059.9.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,057.7. The estimated rate was 1,050.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,051.3. The estimated rate was 1,041.1.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,016.4. The estimated rate was 1,031.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,023.2. The estimated rate was 1,022.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,004.1. The estimated rate was 1,013.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 961.3. The estimated rate was 1,004.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,008.8. The estimated rate was 995.5.
In 2000, the observed rate was 996.5. The estimated rate was 986.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 972.5. The estimated rate was 977.8.
In 2002, the observed rate was 965.9. The estimated rate was 969.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 983.1. The estimated rate was 960.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 949.3. The estimated rate was 951.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 940.4. The estimated rate was 943.4.
In 2006, the observed rate was 916.4. The estimated rate was 927.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 911.3. The estimated rate was 912.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 883.2. The estimated rate was 897.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 874.5. The estimated rate was 882.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 881.4. The estimated rate was 867.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 853.7. The estimated rate was 852.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 844.1. The estimated rate was 838.6.
In 2013, the observed rate was 835.1. The estimated rate was 824.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 818.7. The estimated rate was 810.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 812.0. The estimated rate was 797.3.
In 2016, the observed rate was 789.3. The estimated rate was 784.0.
In 2017, the observed rate was 769.9. The estimated rate was 770.9.
In 2018, the observed rate was 743.6. The estimated rate was 758.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 738.9. The estimated rate was 745.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 730.4. The estimated rate was 733.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/26/2024 6:17 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.