State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2020)

Incidence, Arizona, Colon & Rectum, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 19 years and 1 segments
During 2002-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.9 to -3.5.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 244.6. The estimated rate was 247.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 245.1. The estimated rate was 238.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 229.3. The estimated rate was 229.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 227.0. The estimated rate was 221.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 205.4. The estimated rate was 213.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 203.9. The estimated rate was 205.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 197.9. The estimated rate was 197.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 192.7. The estimated rate was 190.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 180.5. The estimated rate was 183.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 174.7. The estimated rate was 176.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 170.8. The estimated rate was 169.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 163.1. The estimated rate was 163.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 160.1. The estimated rate was 157.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 151.0. The estimated rate was 151.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 140.4. The estimated rate was 145.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 139.3. The estimated rate was 140.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 137.4. The estimated rate was 135.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 132.1. The estimated rate was 130.1.
In 2020, the observed rate was 109.8. The estimated rate was 0.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/18/2024 8:28 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.