State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Arkansas, All Cancer Sites, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 3 segments
During 1975-1991, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.2 to 3.0.
During 1991-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to -0.6.
During 2008-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.8 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 196.9. The estimated rate was 188.7.
In 1976, the observed rate was 196.7. The estimated rate was 193.5.
In 1977, the observed rate was 200.3. The estimated rate was 198.5.
In 1978, the observed rate was 198.8. The estimated rate was 203.7.
In 1979, the observed rate was 203.1. The estimated rate was 208.9.
In 1980, the observed rate was 215.9. The estimated rate was 214.3.
In 1981, the observed rate was 216.9. The estimated rate was 219.9.
In 1982, the observed rate was 223.0. The estimated rate was 225.6.
In 1983, the observed rate was 237.5. The estimated rate was 231.4.
In 1984, the observed rate was 243.2. The estimated rate was 237.4.
In 1985, the observed rate was 233.7. The estimated rate was 243.5.
In 1986, the observed rate was 234.0. The estimated rate was 249.8.
In 1987, the observed rate was 253.8. The estimated rate was 256.3.
In 1988, the observed rate was 258.4. The estimated rate was 262.9.
In 1989, the observed rate was 276.2. The estimated rate was 269.7.
In 1990, the observed rate was 293.8. The estimated rate was 276.6.
In 1991, the observed rate was 271.2. The estimated rate was 283.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 290.0. The estimated rate was 281.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 286.4. The estimated rate was 278.5.
In 1994, the observed rate was 272.2. The estimated rate was 275.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 283.0. The estimated rate was 273.4.
In 1996, the observed rate was 258.9. The estimated rate was 270.8.
In 1997, the observed rate was 268.8. The estimated rate was 268.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 258.0. The estimated rate was 265.8.
In 1999, the observed rate was 269.7. The estimated rate was 263.3.
In 2000, the observed rate was 260.4. The estimated rate was 260.8.
In 2001, the observed rate was 243.9. The estimated rate was 258.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 260.5. The estimated rate was 256.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 260.7. The estimated rate was 253.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 248.4. The estimated rate was 251.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 260.1. The estimated rate was 248.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 242.9. The estimated rate was 246.6.
In 2007, the observed rate was 240.7. The estimated rate was 244.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 250.9. The estimated rate was 242.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 239.6. The estimated rate was 236.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 225.4. The estimated rate was 231.5.
In 2011, the observed rate was 223.4. The estimated rate was 226.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 213.2. The estimated rate was 221.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 209.5. The estimated rate was 216.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 212.5. The estimated rate was 211.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 208.0. The estimated rate was 207.1.
In 2016, the observed rate was 223.0. The estimated rate was 202.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 190.9. The estimated rate was 198.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 186.1. The estimated rate was 193.8.
In 2019, the observed rate was 193.3. The estimated rate was 189.5.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/02/2022 4:58 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.