State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Arkansas, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Arkansas, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.2 to -0.6.
During 2008-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.9 to -1.7.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 291.8. The estimated rate was 286.9.
In 1991, the observed rate was 271.1. The estimated rate was 284.3.
In 1992, the observed rate was 290.1. The estimated rate was 281.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 286.8. The estimated rate was 279.1.
In 1994, the observed rate was 272.0. The estimated rate was 276.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 283.5. The estimated rate was 274.0.
In 1996, the observed rate was 259.0. The estimated rate was 271.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 269.3. The estimated rate was 269.1.
In 1998, the observed rate was 258.5. The estimated rate was 266.6.
In 1999, the observed rate was 270.3. The estimated rate was 264.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 261.5. The estimated rate was 261.8.
In 2001, the observed rate was 245.3. The estimated rate was 259.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 261.9. The estimated rate was 257.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 261.9. The estimated rate was 254.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 249.2. The estimated rate was 252.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 261.8. The estimated rate was 250.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 244.2. The estimated rate was 247.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 242.3. The estimated rate was 245.5.
In 2008, the observed rate was 251.3. The estimated rate was 243.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 239.5. The estimated rate was 237.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 225.9. The estimated rate was 232.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 223.6. The estimated rate was 226.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 212.9. The estimated rate was 221.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 208.0. The estimated rate was 216.1.
In 2014, the observed rate was 213.1. The estimated rate was 211.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 207.0. The estimated rate was 206.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 222.0. The estimated rate was 201.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 191.6. The estimated rate was 196.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 186.8. The estimated rate was 192.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 193.7. The estimated rate was 187.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 177.4. The estimated rate was 183.2.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/02/2024 4:02 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.