State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Mortality, District of Columbia, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 44 years and 2 segments
During 1975-1992, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.2 to 0.9.
During 1992-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.3 to -1.9.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 810.7. The estimated rate was 831.0.
In 1976, the observed rate was 823.1. The estimated rate was 835.3.
In 1977, the observed rate was 838.3. The estimated rate was 839.6.
In 1978, the observed rate was 835.3. The estimated rate was 844.0.
In 1979, the observed rate was 877.2. The estimated rate was 848.4.
In 1980, the observed rate was 891.1. The estimated rate was 852.8.
In 1981, the observed rate was 866.8. The estimated rate was 857.2.
In 1982, the observed rate was 861.0. The estimated rate was 861.6.
In 1983, the observed rate was 830.9. The estimated rate was 866.1.
In 1984, the observed rate was 842.0. The estimated rate was 870.6.
In 1985, the observed rate was 868.2. The estimated rate was 875.1.
In 1986, the observed rate was 912.0. The estimated rate was 879.7.
In 1987, the observed rate was 891.3. The estimated rate was 884.2.
In 1988, the observed rate was 891.0. The estimated rate was 888.8.
In 1989, the observed rate was 948.9. The estimated rate was 893.5.
In 1990, the observed rate was 852.1. The estimated rate was 898.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 894.0. The estimated rate was 902.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 867.5. The estimated rate was 907.4.
In 1993, the observed rate was 840.8. The estimated rate was 888.5.
In 1994, the observed rate was 895.0. The estimated rate was 869.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 877.8. The estimated rate was 851.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 817.2. The estimated rate was 834.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 803.6. The estimated rate was 816.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 799.1. The estimated rate was 799.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 802.6. The estimated rate was 782.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 782.6. The estimated rate was 766.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 780.5. The estimated rate was 750.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 764.5. The estimated rate was 734.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 654.9. The estimated rate was 719.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 681.4. The estimated rate was 704.4.
In 2005, the observed rate was 682.3. The estimated rate was 689.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 706.4. The estimated rate was 675.3.
In 2007, the observed rate was 692.2. The estimated rate was 661.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 661.6. The estimated rate was 647.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 662.9. The estimated rate was 633.8.
In 2010, the observed rate was 604.1. The estimated rate was 620.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 603.6. The estimated rate was 607.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 594.2. The estimated rate was 595.0.
In 2013, the observed rate was 591.7. The estimated rate was 582.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 584.3. The estimated rate was 570.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 555.0. The estimated rate was 558.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 512.9. The estimated rate was 546.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 510.4. The estimated rate was 535.4.
In 2018, the observed rate was 529.1. The estimated rate was 524.2.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/29/2021 12:21 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2017) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2017 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.