State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2018)

Mortality, Illinois, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 44 years and 5 segments
During 1975-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.5 to 0.7.
During 1993-1997, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.6 to -0.5.
During 1997-2000, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to 1.9.
During 2000-2015, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.4.
During 2015-2018, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.4 to -1.3.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 659.0. The estimated rate was 672.6.
In 1976, the observed rate was 681.2. The estimated rate was 676.6.
In 1977, the observed rate was 682.2. The estimated rate was 680.6.
In 1978, the observed rate was 681.5. The estimated rate was 684.6.
In 1979, the observed rate was 702.0. The estimated rate was 688.7.
In 1980, the observed rate was 689.7. The estimated rate was 692.8.
In 1981, the observed rate was 692.9. The estimated rate was 696.9.
In 1982, the observed rate was 703.4. The estimated rate was 701.1.
In 1983, the observed rate was 707.6. The estimated rate was 705.2.
In 1984, the observed rate was 709.8. The estimated rate was 709.4.
In 1985, the observed rate was 714.9. The estimated rate was 713.6.
In 1986, the observed rate was 718.6. The estimated rate was 717.9.
In 1987, the observed rate was 717.4. The estimated rate was 722.1.
In 1988, the observed rate was 728.0. The estimated rate was 726.4.
In 1989, the observed rate was 734.9. The estimated rate was 730.8.
In 1990, the observed rate was 744.9. The estimated rate was 735.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 737.7. The estimated rate was 739.5.
In 1992, the observed rate was 730.9. The estimated rate was 743.9.
In 1993, the observed rate was 745.4. The estimated rate was 748.3.
In 1994, the observed rate was 737.8. The estimated rate was 736.5.
In 1995, the observed rate was 728.9. The estimated rate was 724.9.
In 1996, the observed rate was 716.4. The estimated rate was 713.4.
In 1997, the observed rate was 698.1. The estimated rate was 702.2.
In 1998, the observed rate was 697.4. The estimated rate was 700.9.
In 1999, the observed rate was 705.3. The estimated rate was 699.7.
In 2000, the observed rate was 708.4. The estimated rate was 698.4.
In 2001, the observed rate was 686.1. The estimated rate was 688.2.
In 2002, the observed rate was 680.1. The estimated rate was 678.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 665.3. The estimated rate was 668.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 653.6. The estimated rate was 658.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 645.9. The estimated rate was 648.6.
In 2006, the observed rate was 634.9. The estimated rate was 639.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 627.8. The estimated rate was 629.7.
In 2008, the observed rate was 622.5. The estimated rate was 620.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 610.5. The estimated rate was 611.3.
In 2010, the observed rate was 597.7. The estimated rate was 602.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 588.4. The estimated rate was 593.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 588.4. The estimated rate was 584.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 578.2. The estimated rate was 576.1.
In 2014, the observed rate was 569.8. The estimated rate was 567.7.
In 2015, the observed rate was 562.3. The estimated rate was 559.3.
In 2016, the observed rate was 546.3. The estimated rate was 546.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 534.1. The estimated rate was 533.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 519.8. The estimated rate was 520.5.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/25/2021 11:12 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2017) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2017 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.