State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Missouri, All Cancer Sites, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 2 segments
During 1975-1991, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 1.7.
During 1991-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 262.0. The estimated rate was 259.7.
In 1976, the observed rate was 263.3. The estimated rate was 262.8.
In 1977, the observed rate was 245.4. The estimated rate was 266.0.
In 1978, the observed rate was 270.6. The estimated rate was 269.2.
In 1979, the observed rate was 282.9. The estimated rate was 272.5.
In 1980, the observed rate was 283.9. The estimated rate was 275.7.
In 1981, the observed rate was 258.8. The estimated rate was 279.1.
In 1982, the observed rate was 293.9. The estimated rate was 282.4.
In 1983, the observed rate was 299.5. The estimated rate was 285.8.
In 1984, the observed rate was 292.2. The estimated rate was 289.3.
In 1985, the observed rate was 291.6. The estimated rate was 292.8.
In 1986, the observed rate was 289.7. The estimated rate was 296.3.
In 1987, the observed rate was 308.6. The estimated rate was 299.9.
In 1988, the observed rate was 289.1. The estimated rate was 303.5.
In 1989, the observed rate was 306.8. The estimated rate was 307.2.
In 1990, the observed rate was 310.0. The estimated rate was 310.9.
In 1991, the observed rate was 307.8. The estimated rate was 314.6.
In 1992, the observed rate was 302.6. The estimated rate was 309.1.
In 1993, the observed rate was 299.5. The estimated rate was 303.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 293.7. The estimated rate was 298.3.
In 1995, the observed rate was 290.3. The estimated rate was 293.1.
In 1996, the observed rate was 277.0. The estimated rate was 287.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 287.3. The estimated rate was 282.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 300.3. The estimated rate was 277.9.
In 1999, the observed rate was 274.9. The estimated rate was 273.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 263.1. The estimated rate was 268.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 266.5. The estimated rate was 263.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 260.0. The estimated rate was 258.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 265.1. The estimated rate was 254.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 259.3. The estimated rate was 249.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 243.4. The estimated rate was 245.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 253.4. The estimated rate was 241.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 244.3. The estimated rate was 236.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 217.2. The estimated rate was 232.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 212.9. The estimated rate was 228.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 229.6. The estimated rate was 224.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 208.8. The estimated rate was 220.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 224.8. The estimated rate was 216.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 213.5. The estimated rate was 213.1.
In 2014, the observed rate was 220.7. The estimated rate was 209.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 203.2. The estimated rate was 205.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 198.8. The estimated rate was 202.0.
In 2017, the observed rate was 197.8. The estimated rate was 198.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 197.6. The estimated rate was 195.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 182.5. The estimated rate was 191.6.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/02/2022 4:44 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.