State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Montana, All Cancer Sites, AI/AN Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 1 segments
During 2002-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to 0.5.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 539.0. The estimated rate was 643.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 661.5. The estimated rate was 641.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 622.0. The estimated rate was 638.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 645.3. The estimated rate was 635.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 645.9. The estimated rate was 632.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 736.6. The estimated rate was 629.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 613.8. The estimated rate was 626.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 679.4. The estimated rate was 623.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 693.0. The estimated rate was 621.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 652.3. The estimated rate was 618.3.
In 2012, the observed rate was 512.1. The estimated rate was 615.5.
In 2013, the observed rate was 569.0. The estimated rate was 612.7.
In 2014, the observed rate was 559.6. The estimated rate was 610.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 573.3. The estimated rate was 607.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 561.5. The estimated rate was 604.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 640.2. The estimated rate was 601.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 608.9. The estimated rate was 599.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 587.4. The estimated rate was 596.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 579.0. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 622.9. The estimated rate was 591.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/16/2025 8:56 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.