State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, North Carolina, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-1995, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to 2.2.
During 1995-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.0 to -1.8.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 264.1. The estimated rate was 264.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 263.9. The estimated rate was 265.9.
In 1992, the observed rate was 271.9. The estimated rate was 267.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 268.3. The estimated rate was 269.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 269.8. The estimated rate was 271.7.
In 1995, the observed rate was 275.2. The estimated rate was 273.7.
In 1996, the observed rate was 269.5. The estimated rate was 268.6.
In 1997, the observed rate was 263.3. The estimated rate was 263.5.
In 1998, the observed rate was 252.4. The estimated rate was 258.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 258.1. The estimated rate was 253.7.
In 2000, the observed rate was 246.4. The estimated rate was 248.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 250.0. The estimated rate was 244.2.
In 2002, the observed rate was 240.7. The estimated rate was 239.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 225.2. The estimated rate was 235.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 231.4. The estimated rate was 230.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 223.3. The estimated rate was 226.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 229.9. The estimated rate was 222.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 223.1. The estimated rate was 217.8.
In 2008, the observed rate was 206.7. The estimated rate was 213.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 203.4. The estimated rate was 209.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 208.1. The estimated rate was 205.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 206.7. The estimated rate was 201.8.
In 2012, the observed rate was 199.3. The estimated rate was 198.0.
In 2013, the observed rate was 192.6. The estimated rate was 194.3.
In 2014, the observed rate was 192.8. The estimated rate was 190.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 186.8. The estimated rate was 187.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 184.8. The estimated rate was 183.5.
In 2017, the observed rate was 180.4. The estimated rate was 180.0.
In 2018, the observed rate was 172.6. The estimated rate was 176.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 179.0. The estimated rate was 173.3.
In 2020, the observed rate was 165.1. The estimated rate was 170.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/06/2024 10:58 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.