State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Oregon, All Cancer Sites, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 2 segments
During 1975-1978, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 23.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -5.6 to 61.4.
During 1978-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.0 to -1.3.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 167.4. The estimated rate was 175.9.
In 1976, the observed rate was 228.7. The estimated rate was 217.1.
In 1977, the observed rate was 271.2. The estimated rate was 267.9.
In 1978, the observed rate was 312.4. The estimated rate was 330.6.
In 1979, the observed rate was 356.5. The estimated rate was 325.2.
In 1980, the observed rate was 300.1. The estimated rate was 319.9.
In 1981, the observed rate was 244.2. The estimated rate was 314.7.
In 1982, the observed rate was 259.6. The estimated rate was 309.6.
In 1983, the observed rate was 318.0. The estimated rate was 304.6.
In 1984, the observed rate was 327.0. The estimated rate was 299.6.
In 1985, the observed rate was 244.0. The estimated rate was 294.7.
In 1986, the observed rate was 265.3. The estimated rate was 289.9.
In 1987, the observed rate was 209.7. The estimated rate was 285.2.
In 1988, the observed rate was 316.1. The estimated rate was 280.5.
In 1989, the observed rate was 327.2. The estimated rate was 276.0.
In 1990, the observed rate was 292.1. The estimated rate was 271.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 202.4. The estimated rate was 267.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 266.0. The estimated rate was 262.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 317.2. The estimated rate was 258.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 286.4. The estimated rate was 254.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 273.5. The estimated rate was 250.0.
In 1996, the observed rate was 271.6. The estimated rate was 246.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 238.4. The estimated rate was 242.0.
In 1998, the observed rate was 225.6. The estimated rate was 238.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 245.1. The estimated rate was 234.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 214.2. The estimated rate was 230.3.
In 2001, the observed rate was 202.6. The estimated rate was 226.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 259.0. The estimated rate was 222.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 228.4. The estimated rate was 219.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 233.2. The estimated rate was 215.7.
In 2005, the observed rate was 204.3. The estimated rate was 212.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 164.9. The estimated rate was 208.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 184.8. The estimated rate was 205.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 193.5. The estimated rate was 201.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 190.6. The estimated rate was 198.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 210.9. The estimated rate was 195.4.
In 2011, the observed rate was 203.0. The estimated rate was 192.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 223.1. The estimated rate was 189.1.
In 2013, the observed rate was 210.5. The estimated rate was 186.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 162.5. The estimated rate was 183.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 183.9. The estimated rate was 180.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 174.0. The estimated rate was 177.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 149.1. The estimated rate was 174.2.
In 2018, the observed rate was 179.6. The estimated rate was 171.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 146.9. The estimated rate was 168.5.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/02/2022 4:52 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.