State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2003, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.2.
During 2003-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.7.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 290.9. The estimated rate was 294.7.
In 1991, the observed rate was 289.9. The estimated rate was 290.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 286.5. The estimated rate was 287.0.
In 1993, the observed rate was 283.0. The estimated rate was 283.3.
In 1994, the observed rate was 280.5. The estimated rate was 279.6.
In 1995, the observed rate was 278.0. The estimated rate was 275.9.
In 1996, the observed rate was 277.7. The estimated rate was 272.3.
In 1997, the observed rate was 268.8. The estimated rate was 268.7.
In 1998, the observed rate was 265.9. The estimated rate was 265.2.
In 1999, the observed rate was 261.7. The estimated rate was 261.7.
In 2000, the observed rate was 258.4. The estimated rate was 258.3.
In 2001, the observed rate was 253.2. The estimated rate was 254.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 250.3. The estimated rate was 251.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 250.2. The estimated rate was 248.3.
In 2004, the observed rate was 239.0. The estimated rate was 243.7.
In 2005, the observed rate was 242.2. The estimated rate was 239.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 232.5. The estimated rate was 234.9.
In 2007, the observed rate was 228.8. The estimated rate was 230.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 226.8. The estimated rate was 226.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 221.4. The estimated rate was 222.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 219.2. The estimated rate was 218.2.
In 2011, the observed rate was 215.3. The estimated rate was 214.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 210.7. The estimated rate was 210.3.
In 2013, the observed rate was 204.7. The estimated rate was 206.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 204.1. The estimated rate was 202.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 202.0. The estimated rate was 198.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 197.3. The estimated rate was 195.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 191.8. The estimated rate was 191.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 187.1. The estimated rate was 188.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 181.4. The estimated rate was 184.8.
In 2020, the observed rate was 181.7. The estimated rate was 181.4.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/18/2024 10:51 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.