State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2004, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.9 to -0.7.
During 2004-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.4.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 186.3. The estimated rate was 186.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 183.7. The estimated rate was 185.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 185.0. The estimated rate was 183.6.
In 1993, the observed rate was 182.9. The estimated rate was 182.2.
In 1994, the observed rate was 181.4. The estimated rate was 180.8.
In 1995, the observed rate was 178.3. The estimated rate was 179.4.
In 1996, the observed rate was 177.6. The estimated rate was 178.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 177.9. The estimated rate was 176.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 171.2. The estimated rate was 175.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 176.0. The estimated rate was 173.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 173.4. The estimated rate was 172.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 173.0. The estimated rate was 171.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 170.6. The estimated rate was 169.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 167.0. The estimated rate was 168.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 167.7. The estimated rate was 167.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 164.7. The estimated rate was 164.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 162.9. The estimated rate was 162.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 158.2. The estimated rate was 160.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 155.4. The estimated rate was 157.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 154.9. The estimated rate was 155.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 154.1. The estimated rate was 153.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 152.0. The estimated rate was 150.9.
In 2012, the observed rate was 150.4. The estimated rate was 148.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 146.5. The estimated rate was 146.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 144.3. The estimated rate was 144.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 142.8. The estimated rate was 142.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 141.2. The estimated rate was 140.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 138.9. The estimated rate was 138.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 135.2. The estimated rate was 136.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 132.6. The estimated rate was 134.1.
In 2020, the observed rate was 131.7. The estimated rate was 132.1.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/26/2024 7:47 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.