State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2020)

Incidence, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, Hispanic (any race), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 19 years and 3 segments
During 2002-2010, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to 3.8.
During 2010-2013, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -4.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -6.8 to -0.5.
During 2013-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.6 to 5.6.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 436.6. The estimated rate was 440.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 420.7. The estimated rate was 436.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 439.1. The estimated rate was 432.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 438.0. The estimated rate was 428.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 444.1. The estimated rate was 424.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 411.8. The estimated rate was 420.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 413.4. The estimated rate was 417.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 403.2. The estimated rate was 413.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 412.6. The estimated rate was 409.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 390.7. The estimated rate was 390.1.
In 2012, the observed rate was 378.0. The estimated rate was 371.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 355.6. The estimated rate was 353.6.
In 2014, the observed rate was 354.1. The estimated rate was 360.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 352.1. The estimated rate was 367.8.
In 2016, the observed rate was 382.9. The estimated rate was 375.2.
In 2017, the observed rate was 398.4. The estimated rate was 382.6.
In 2018, the observed rate was 388.6. The estimated rate was 390.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 391.7. The estimated rate was 398.1.
In 2020, the observed rate was 343.4. The estimated rate was 0.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/25/2024 2:50 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
For Hispanic incidence data, NHIA (NAACCR Hispanic Identification Algorithm) was used for Hispanic Ethnicity (see Technical Notes section of the USCS ).

Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.