State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2010, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to 1.4.
During 2010-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.6 to -1.4.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 576.6. The estimated rate was 554.3.
In 2003, the observed rate was 545.8. The estimated rate was 553.9.
In 2004, the observed rate was 551.8. The estimated rate was 553.6.
In 2005, the observed rate was 543.8. The estimated rate was 553.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 540.9. The estimated rate was 552.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 540.3. The estimated rate was 552.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 559.3. The estimated rate was 552.0.
In 2009, the observed rate was 558.7. The estimated rate was 551.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 552.7. The estimated rate was 551.2.
In 2011, the observed rate was 554.3. The estimated rate was 541.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 508.4. The estimated rate was 531.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 526.6. The estimated rate was 522.2.
In 2014, the observed rate was 518.0. The estimated rate was 512.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 502.3. The estimated rate was 503.6.
In 2016, the observed rate was 497.5. The estimated rate was 494.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 483.5. The estimated rate was 485.8.
In 2018, the observed rate was 478.8. The estimated rate was 477.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 487.9. The estimated rate was 468.5.
In 2020, the observed rate was 421.7. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 434.7. The estimated rate was 451.9.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/18/2025 7:35 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.